Maryland Terrapins
Overall Record: 16-13
Big Ten Record: 9-11 (lost in QF to Michigan)
Best Win: 66-63 @ Illinois, January 10
Conference Awards:
Eric Ayala, Honorable Mention, Big Ten
Aaron Wiggins Honorable Mention, Big Ten
Darryl Morsey, All-Defensive Team
Darryl Morsey, Defensive Player of the Year
KenPom: 31
Four Factors + 3-point % (rank in the country listed):
Other Of Note:
Roster:
Of Note:
Ayala has scored in double figures in all but 4 games this year. Averaging 14.2 PPG over his last 5 games on just 36% shooting, 7-29 3PT shooting
Wiggins has scored in double figures in Maryland’s last ten games, averaging 17.4 PPG on 51% shooting, 35% from 3. He is coming off of screens on close to 18% of his possessions and is shooting 46% on those possessions.
Scott scored in double figures in 14 of 17 games in the months of November, December, January. Since February, he has scored in double figures in just 2 of 12 games. 2+ 3’s in 11 games this year
Morsell has scored in double figures in 5 of their last 6, averaging 11.7 PPG on 64% shooting, 72% shooting from two. 3.0 APG over the last 6.
Hart has scored in double figures in 8 games this year, including a 32 point performance against St. Peter’s in which he went 5-7 from three. 34% 3-point shooter, 2+ 3’s in 7 games this year.
Hamilton has made at least two threes in 12 games this year. He has made 3 threes in 5 games this year
When Maryland Has the Ball:
Maryland Pick and Roll:
Maryland uses pick and rolls in 24% of their total possessions, shooting 44.1% from the field, ranking 54th in the country. In possessions where the Terps’ ballhandlers have kept the basketball in the pick and roll (11% of the time), they shoot an impressive 48% from the field, ranking 11th in the country. Ayala has been used in the most pick and rolls, 175, shooting 55% on his 92 keeps. Wiggins has been used in 123 pick and rolls, Morsell 78, Hart 50, and Scott 26.
The screensetters have also found success when passed to on a pick and roll, shooting a combined 49% from the field. Scott and Hamilton are much more likely to pop or a slip to the three-point line off a ballscreen while Smith is almost always rolling or slipping hard to the rim.
How Does UConn Defend the Pick and Roll:
In 533 defensive pick and roll possessions, UConn is allowing scores on just 36%, ranking tied for 87th in the country. When ballhandlers have kept it against UConn in a pick and roll, they are scoring on 31% of possessions, ranking 38th in the country and when the screener has been passed to, opponents are scoring on 38% of possessions, good for 61st in the country.
Maryland Post-Ups:
Maryland has gone to the post 216 times this season which accounts for 10.4% of their offensive possessions. As a team, they are shooting 46% whenever the ball is entered into the post, ranking 161st in the country.
Scott has been used the most in the post with 59 possessions followed by Smith at 49 possessions. 7-2 sophomore Chol Marial has posted up on 25 possessions and Jarius Hamilton on 14 possessions. At 6-4, Maryland will post up Morsell, who is shooting 68% in his 34 post-up possessions. Additionally, Ayala has been thrown the ball in the post on 23 possessions this year.
How Does UConn Defend Post-Ups:
In 181 possessions of post-up defense, UConn is allowing 42% from the field which is above average, ranking 94th in the country. Whaley has been involved in the most post-defense possessions, 62, and is allowing 44% shooting. Sanogo, meanwhile, has been involved in 33 defensive post-up possessions and is allowing scores on 36% of possessions.
As for UConn’s backcourt against the post, Gaffney has been posted up 11 times and is allowing a perfect 7-7 from the field while Martin has been posted up 10 times, allowing 1-5 shooting.
UConn has been known to double in the post against certain players and when they have, they are allowing 5-19 shooting and forcing turnovers 20% of the time.
Maryland Spot-Ups, Catch and Shoots, and Off-the-Dribble:
On 600 possessions this year, Maryland is shooting 37% in spot-up situations, ranking 164th in the country. Maryland has three players who are above 40% in spot-up situations: Ayala, Hamilton, and Scott. Morsell has been the worst in spot-ups at 29% while Wiggins and Hart are at 34% and 39%, respectively.
On catch and shoots, Maryland is at 35%, which is again middle of the pack at 151st in the country. Hamilton is the only player shooting above 40% at 44%, which just so happens to be his three-point percentage. Lastly, off-the-dribble, Maryland is at 34% which is 169th in the country. Wiggins is the best on the team at 38% off-the-dribble, while Scott is capable, shooting 9-21 on the year off-the-dribble.
How Does UConn defend spot-ups, catch and shoots, and off-the-dribble:
UConn has been elite in defending spot-ups, allowing scores in 33% of the 399 possessions they have faced, good for 72nd in the country. Whaley and Gaffney are both under 30% in terms of percentage of possessions opponents have scored on them. Jackson and Polley are both above 40%. Polley had a real rough streak midway through conference play in terms of his defense but has adjusted and Jackson is actually allowing only 38% shooting, but as we know, is very foul prone.
On catch and shoots, UConn is allowing 33% shooting, ranking 116th in the country. Whether it is because of who he is guarding or due to his elite defense, Gaffney has been the best on the year at defending the catch and shoot, allowing 23% shooting to opponents (I’m willing to bet it’s because of his defense). To carry on with the theme of UConn’s defense, they are allowing 28% shooting on off-the-dribble jumpers which ranks 31st in the country.
I have no idea if this is a direct correlation (not about to run a t-test LOL), but my guess is the off-the-dribble defense has a lot to do with UConn’s ability to force tough shots at the end of shot clocks after possession long great defense. On the year, UConn is allowing 21% shooting on end of shot clock possessions, classified as 4 seconds or less. This ranks 7th in the country.
Maryland, on the year, is shooting 34% at end of shot clock situations, which ranks in the top 100 in the country. Something to monitor.
Maryland Transition:
21.8% of initial shot attempts for Maryland come in transition, which ranks 310th in the country according to hoop-math.com. However, when Maryland does decide to attack in transition, their eFG% is 59.4, ranking 42nd in the country.
How does UConn defend Transition:
On the season, UConn continues to be below average in transition defense. They are allowing 59% shooting in transition which ranks 336th in the country.
When UConn Has the Ball:
UConn Pick and Roll:
UConn has been involved in 514 pick and rolls this season accounting for 29.7% of their possessions. They have not fared well on these possessions, scoring on 36% of all pick and roll possessions which ranks 262nd in the country.
On keeps by the ball handler, UConn is shooting 36% from the field which ranks 254th in the country. I wish there was a way to sort certain games but I would imagine these numbers have increased since RJ Cole has adjusted to this level of competition, excelling in the pick and roll the way he did at Howard. Cole has been involved in the most pick and rolls for UConn at 201. Jalen Gaffney has been involved in 116 and James Bouknight has been in 102 total. Smaller sample sizes but worth noting anyways: Tyrese Martin has been involved in 29 pick and rolls and Andre Jackson has been involved in 21.
Here we go in chart form:
On passes to the screener, UConn is shooting 43% overall which ranks 231st in the nation. An unclear part of synergy is if this is strictly off the ballhandler or if it includes a few one more passes around the perimeter before finally entering it into the post. We see this all the time with Sanogo high ballscreens to get him INTO the post. I’m not sure if these types of possessions are categorized as post-ups or “pick and roll man.”
Nonetheless, here is what synergy has for us.
*Reminder, this is when the ball is passed to the ballscreener, not just ballscreens in general*
How Does Maryland Defend Pick and Rolls:
Overall, Maryland is below average defending the pick and roll, allowing scores on 39% of possessions which ranks 227th in the country. Specifically, when opponents have passed to the screener, the Terps are allowing 52% shooting which ranks 246th in the country. When the ballhandler keeps it on pick and rolls, Maryland is allowing scores on 37% of possessions, ranking 231st in the country.
UConn Post-Ups:
Sticking with the frontcourt players, we are going to take a look at post-up possessions which account for 7.7% of total offensive possessions for UConn.
Not a surprise here, Sanogo leads the team with 70 total post-ups. Isaiah Whaley has been posted up 25 times, Josh Carlton 21 times. Hurley will also post up Tyrese Martin on occasion as he has posted up 14 times this season.
How Does Maryland Defend the Post:
In the 281 post-up possessions that Maryland have defended this year, they are allowing 47% shooting which ranks 234th in the country. They are also allowing scores on 47% of post-ups which ranks 284th in the country.
Maryland’s frontline of 6-7 Donta Scott, 6-9 Galin Smith, and 6-8 Jarius Hamilton have been posted up a combined 135 times on the year. Scott is allowing 55% shooting, Smith 39% shooting (but scores on 43% shooting which means fouls), and Hamilton 43% shooting.
UConn Spot-Ups, Catch & Shoots, and Off the Dribble
As a team, UConn is scoring on 38.3% of spot-up situations which ranks 62nd in the country and is led by Martin and Gaffney who are both above 40% shooting in spot-ups. In catch and shoot situations, UConn is shooting 34.2% as a team which is middle of the pack, ranking 186th in the country. In off-the-dribbles, UConn is shooting 37% from the field which ranks 79th in the country. The success in off-the-dribble situations come mostly from Bouknight and Cole, especially in pick and rolls.
How Does Maryland Defend Spot-Ups, Catch and Shoots, and Off-the-dribble jumpers:
In spot-ups, Maryland is allowing 34% shooting which ranks 65th in the country. Despite their struggles in the pick and roll on either the ballhandler or screener, they do a good job recovering with rotations and closeouts in spot-up situations that generally come off pick and rolls. 6-6 swingman Aaron Wiggins has been the Terps’ best spot-up defender on the year, allowing 28% shooting on 118 possessions.
In strict catch and shoots, Maryland is allowing 35% shooting, ranking 198th in the country.
Lastly, on off-the dribbles, Maryland is allowing just 31% shooting, ranking 92nd in the country.
UConn Transition:
Lastly, UConn has improved in transition since the beginning of the year, up to 51% shooting in their 266 possessions classified as ”transition,” ranking 186th in the country.
How Does Maryland Defend Transition:
Maryland has been excellent in defending transition this year, allowing scores on 40% of possessions, ranking 27th in the country. This stat goes right along with Maryland’s willingness to play slow, ranking 317th in adjusted tempo.
Four Questions (Pesach, March 27th!):
1. Maryland Pick and Roll Offense versus UConn Pick and Roll Defense
Almost a quarter of Maryland’s possessions end in pick and roll. In those possessions, they are good. As mentioned above, the Terps shoot 44% in pick and rolls, good for 54th in the country. Turgeon is willing to put five different players in ballscreens and all are able to make a play. Maryland has four different players shooting over 40% on keeps this year. Ayala is one of the best players in the country at finishing in the pick and roll, shooting 55% on 92 keeps. Of players who have over 50 possessions keeping the ball in the pick and roll, Ayala ranks 12th out of 570 Division I players. He is taking it to the basket a majority of the time with the occasional off-the-dribble jump shot.
As we know, UConn defends the pick and roll with a hard hedge, weakside help and then a recover from the big man on the hedge. The goal of the hard hedge is to force the ballhandler towards halfcourt and an ideal world, force the ball out of his hands. In order to avoid Ayala from getting downhill and to the basket, Sanogo/Whaley/Carlton and whoever is the primary defender, most likely Cole/Gaffney, will have to contain, contain, contain.
After the hard hedge and double comes the interesting part. If it is Maryland’s Smith setting the ballscreen, he is rolling to the rim. The MIG, or weakside defender, for UConn will have to be planted in the paint discouraging the pass to the roller. Smith is 7-12 on rolls this year and overall 57% around the basket in non post-up situations. However, if it is Scott or Hamilton setting the screen, they are popping or slipping (more of a ghost screen) to the three point line. On the year, they are a combined 20-46 on pops.
The pop to the three-point line is something more and more common in today’s basketball and is something UConn has been familiar with this year. Both Seton Hall and Marquette had players who would regularly pop off a ballscreen. Mamu for Seton Hall and Garcia for Marquette, both of whom play 4 and sometimes 5. Scott and Hamilton both fill this role as a stretch 4 or stretch 5 and I would imagine Hurley and staff are pouring over film from those four games against Marquette and Seton Hall to see how to best defend the pick and pop.
Again, we are going to come back to the hard hedge. By forcing the ballhandler to half court with active feet, and most importantly, active hands, it creates a tough pass to the original screener. It also buys enough time for the potential of multiple weakside defenders to get in position to stunt at the popper while waiting for the original defender to get back. Something I noticed the second time we played Marquette and Seton Hall was the fact that we would sometimes just switch Sanogo and Whaley. For example, Mamu sets a ballscreen and pops. Sanogo, who was guarding the 5, would be the MIG and switch out to Mamu while Whaley, who hedged, returned to Sanogo’s guy. This is something that could be useful against Maryland’s frontline as well.
2. The Curious Case of Adama Sanogo
The co-Big East Freshman of the Year has proven to be a legitimate threat for the UConn offense, especially late in the year. Sanogo has scored in double figures in four straight games, averaging 13.3 PPG on 23-35 shooting, 66%! The issue with him is that he is a freshman and what does that mean? He commits silly fouls, like over-the-back on free throws. He is also still adjusting to high level officiating which in lament terms means, keep your arms out and don’t put your hands on anyone. Additionally, when battling for post positioning on defense, don’t use your hands, use the forearms. Still, being a freshman, it is easy for officials to pick on him and he has unfortunately been on the wrong side of plenty of tough calls.
However, as noted, when he is on the court he is a formidable option and gives UConn a post threat that they were hoping Josh Carlton would have turned into (lol). Over the last few games, Hurley has put Sanogo in the post through one main option: ballscreens. The action essentially works like this: Usually, some false action (like dribble weaves) to start off before Sanogo coming into a high ballscreen for usually either Bouknight or Cole (sometimes Gaff). They come off the ballscreen while Sanogo dives hard to the hoop. The progression is then as follows: Guard comes off ballscreen always looking to score (eyes tell the story!) and then looks at the roller. If there is nothing right away, Sanogo still rolls hard to the hoop and UConn then throws one or two one-more passes around the perimeter while Sanogo gets his position on the block. We have seen it time and time again where Sanogo just needs to get the ball on the block and then his footwork and touch is good enough to get a shot against essentially anyone.
So, the ballscreen, which has become a very large staple to this offense, is essentially a two-step process. Look to score off the ballscreen (ballhander or roller) and then look to give a post entry to Sanogo once he gets position.
There was the horns rip set that was popular while Bouknight was out, but it hasn’t been used of late. I’m curious if it makes its way back into the playbook, especially since Maryland has been about average at defending post-ups this season.
On the season, the front line of 6-7 Scott, 6-8 Hamilton, and 6-9 Smith are allowing 47% shooting, which isn’t terrible considering the undersized frontcourt had to go against Cockburn, Dickinson, and Garza a combined 5 times. Let’s dive a little deeper into that:
Dickinson: 10-11 on 2s
Garza: 7-10 on 2s
Kockburn: 8-10 on 2s
Dickinson: 1-3 on 2s
Dickinson: 3-5 on 2s
Let me be clear in that Sanogo is nowhere near the level of the above big men (...yet) and clearly Maryland saw something in the matchup with Michigan to limit his touches in round 2 or 3, but it is something to monitor if Sanogo can stay on the floor.
When UConn is on defense, Sanogo should have no problem defending Smith. However, it is Scott and Hamilton who see a majority of the minutes at the 5, both of whom are far more perimeter oriented. Both will post-up occasionally and have had about average success so as long as Sanogo isn’t foul prone, he should have no problem defending them on the block. On the perimeter is a different story but it should be noted that Sanogo’s defensive footwork has improved as the year has gone on, especially when returning to his man after a hard hedge.
If Sanogo is in foul trouble or struggles on defense, there is some good news that comes from it. According to CBBanalytics, the lineup of Cole-Bouknight-Martin-Polley-Whaley has a net rating of +47 in 29 minutes. Similarly, replacing Martin with Gaffney, the lineup of Gaffney-Cole-Bouknight-Polley-Whaley has a net rating of +76.6 in 19 minutes. We of course want Sanogo to avoid foul trouble and play good enough defense, but that was just a little nugget for you.
3. Phase III: Transition Basketball
I feel like we are always addressing the transition game when discussing UConn and any opponent. From about the first Marquette game on, Hurley consistently made points to talk about playing faster and taking advantage of advantageous situations (4 on 3, 3 on 2, 2 on 1, 3 on 1, 4 on 2, etc). With Bouknight not in the lineup, the Huskies weren’t exactly successful but have since picked up the slack, looking to get out in transition after any defensive rebound or steal. In recent games, it has become incredibly apparent how fast guys “get out of the mud” (thank you Porter Moser) and down the court. With Bouknight usually leading the charge, he has one thing in mind: to the rim. Cole and Gaffney meanwhile are consistently looking up the court looking for hit aheads or for Tyler Polley getting to his spot. To be honest, I would like to see more Martin in transition, but with the emergence of Andre Jackson being a “Lonzoesque” passer in transition, it makes sense that the junior’s possessions have taken a slight decrease.
At this point in the year, UConn ranks 236th in effective FG% according to hoop-math.com. While this ranking is *not good*, it should be noted that their ranking has jumped over 100 spots in the last six weeks. Bouknight being healthy obviously helps this but also, the emergence of successful transition offense took time and commitment. Hurley and co never wavered from pushing the pace, although it may have seemed so at times. Clearly at this point in the year, Hurley feels very comfortable giving the keys to anyone of the UConn guards to push the ball in transition.
Maryland is middle of the pack, ranking 164th in effective FG% defense when it comes to transition.
As we move to the other side of the ball, THAT is where things get interesting.
According to Kenpom, Maryland ranks 317th in adjusted tempo and 285th in average possession length. Additionally, according to hoop-math.com, only 22% of their FGs come from transition which ranks 310th in the country. What does that all mean? They like a nice half-court, slowed down offense.
HOWEVER! In those transition offense possessions, Maryland has an effective FG% of 59.4, ranking 42nd in the country! The Terps are good at converting when they decide to take advantage of transition opportunities, but it is clear they are very selective (The Group, Very Selective) in when they want to run. Meanwhile, UConn ranks (gulp) 335th in transition defense when it comes to effective FG%. Not good!
So, this begs the question: Will Maryland look to push the tempo a little bit more given that UConn has struggled to defend transition offense? A bit of a catch 22 though here because if they do, one would argue they are playing right into UConn’s hands as the Huskies have turned into a team that wants uptempo basketball, turning DEfense into OFFense.
Very interesting, indeed.
#stats
#numbers
#analysis
4. James Bouknight vs Darryl Morsell
Darryl Morsell is the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year. If James Bouknight had played more games, he had a very good chance at being the Big East Player of the Year. Instead, the Big East settled for a three-way tie while Bouknight walked away with All-Big East 1st team honors. WIth Morsell and Bouknight both at 6-5, this will be the matchup to watch. Senior versus sophomore.
I’ve been trying to find film on Morsell and actually stumbled upon a video made by the Big Ten Network that is labeled “Darryl Morsell Named Defensive Player of the Year.” I thought “great!” Here comes 15 minutes of him locking up Ayo Dosunmu, Rocket Watts, Isaiah Livers, maybe Wieskamp from Iowa. The point was I wanted to see who he was guarding and how he was doing it since a lot of the time, box scores don’t tell the full story. Let me tell you my friends: I was disappointed. Within the first ~8 minutes, the video featured THREE defensive possessions and the rest offensive!!! WHAT!? With that being said, I came to this conclusion: the dude is long, he is bouncy, and he can move.
The way he defends reminds me slightly of a richer man’s Koby McEwen from Marquette who essentially shut down Bouknight in that first matchup. Marquette also threw four defenders on Bouknight within the first 5 minutes of action and consistently had five guys watching him and ready to help. Given Maryland’s defensive numbers, I would assume more of the same in this game. You stop Bouknight and you put yourself in a very good position to succeed (fingers crossed RJ Cole is okay and ready to go).
I could go on more of a witch hunt for video on Morsell, but we will settle for Synergy numbers instead.
We don’t learn too much from this table but it should be noted that the three types of actions that Bouknight shoots best from (handoffs, isolations, pick and rolls) happen to be the same three actions that Morsell allows the highest field goal percentage. From what I hear, Morsell is a legit good defender but it is also interesting to me how he won the award following an ad campaign from his teammates.
We will certainly find out on Saturday at primetime if he is the real deal.
Last, last, last, last thing:
RJ Cole ballscreens has officially become a thing and has been since the first Georgetown game. Maryland has a big backcourt at 6-5, 6-5, and 6-6, but Cole has become one of the best guards I have seen this year at keeping his defender in jail (besides maybe Mike Smith of Michigan). This tactic keeps the defender on his back meaning he shouldn’t be disrupted by the length as he knifes through the paint. The success of UConn relies a lot on Cole. Hopefully he is good to go.
Okay, LAST THING:
Do you guys think those “weird/WHAT IS THIS LINEUP” lineups we played in January and early February during conference play helped us get to this point now?
Let me answer the question for you:
YES
It is why Jalen Gaffney is as comfortable at running the offense as he is now.
UConn 6-0 (all Big East games) when playing 9 guys 10+ minutes.
You don’t play for January. You don’t play for February. You play for March.
Thanks for reading, friends, and as always GO HUSKIES
#BleedBlue
