Four Things to Look For in UConn vs Marquette

We’ve been putting a lot of content out there here at BleedBlueBlog both on our website and mainly on our twitter feed so we just wanted to condense everything for you guys into one space.

There are four main things I am looking for tonight.

First, who guards Koby McEwen?

McEwen is Marquette’s most dynamic scorer and is averaging 13.5 PPG this season. He gets most of his points through spot-up situations and on pick and rolls. He has been held in check over the last four games, scoring only 7, 20, 5, and 6. He has scored over 20 points in 3 contests this year, but has been held to single digits in 5 games.

I would imagine it would be some combination of Martin and Bouknight but I am curious to see who gets the most defensive possessions on him. I’m sure Gaffney will also spend some time on McEwen off the bench.

Whoever isn’t guarding McEwen will be tasked with guarding the red hot Jamal Cain who has been on an absolute tear in his last four games, averaging 15.5 PPG on 31-43 shooting and 9-14 from three. Overall he is a 45% three-point shooter and scores mostly on those spot-up situations, so relying on Carton and McEwen to create for him on pick and rolls or drives to the basket.

So the question is do you simply have Bouknight guard McEwen since on paper it makes the most sense due to their similar builds at around 6-5? If this is the case, it is an opportunity for Bouknight to show that he is more than a professional scorer, but that he is also a two-way player. Personally, I think Bouknight is an underrated on-ball defender and this would be an opportunity for him to prove a lot more to NBA scouts (and to Hurley).

This would leave Martin on Cain and since they are both 6-6, 6-7 it makes sense. I’m not sure how UConn’s MIG Pick and Roll Defense is going to look tonight with the pick and pops but I would imagine Marquette likes to run actions that involve the MIG being Cain’s man. As discussed, Martin is a great MIG defender with his active feet and would certainly be a good man for the task.

The other option is to have the just as athletic, bigger Martin guard McEwen and have Bouknight guard Cain. Since Martin is bigger, it could potentially provide a much more difficult time for McEwen while also giving Bouknight the chance to catch his breath on defense. However, Bouknight, unless he is told to just stay at home against Cain,  would then be tasked with being in the MIG position and if there has been one tiny flaw in his game, it is his off-ball defensive positioning.

It will be interesting to see who Hurley goes with as the primary defender - my guess is it just ends up being Bouknight.

Secondly, we are going to continue to talk about James Bouknight, but this time his pick and roll offense against Marquette’s pick and roll defense.

Bouknight has been involved in 31 pick and rolls where he is the primary ball handler and is shooting close to 50% when he keeps it. When teams commit to him, forcing the ball up, he is a capable passer, passing on 9 possessions where his teammates are a combined 4-7 from the field. Overall, UConn scores in some regard on 41.9% of Bouknight’s pick and rolls.

Similarly, on hand-offs, Bouknight is shooting 4-10 from the field and scoring on 46.2% of the 13 handoff possessions.

Meanwhile, Marquette has been involved in 97 possessions where the opposing ball handler keeps it. In those possessions, Marquette is allowing 47.2% shooting, which ranks 266th in the country. Furthermore, McEwen, who could very well guard Bouknight, has been involved in 28 pick and roll defensive possessions and is allowing 13-21 shooting.

DJ Carton is by far Marquette’s pick and roll defender, and really their best defender period as he is allowing just 5-18 shooting on 24 defensive possessions involved in the pick and roll where the ballhandler keeps it. At 6-2, I don’t think Carton sees a lot of time on Bouknight and if he does, then hopefully Bouk has the ability to shoot over the top of him.

It could be another feather in Bouknight’s NBA scout cap tonight.

Third, we are going to talk about Isaiah Whaley and staying out of foul trouble, specifically when it comes to Marquette’s 6-11 freshman Dawson Garcia.

Garcia is averaging 12.4 PPG on 45% shooting while also hitting on 10-27 three-pointers. In spot-up situations, he is 9-20, 8-18 on post-ups and 7-9 on offensive rebounds. Additionally, on his 18 ballscreens, he has popped on 13 of them.

Garcia would be an ideal matchup for a healthy Akok Akok and even if Akok was healthy, I'm not sure how much of a role he would play. So back to the main question. Whaley should be able to handle Garcia’s multidimensional offense by defending the post, hard hedging, and returning to Garcia on the pop, but what happens if he gets in foul trouble which is something he has been prone to the last few games?

Can Carlton or Sanogo handle the hard hedge before returning to Garcia on the pop? What about when Marquette goes with the John/Garcia lineups which is 28% of the time? We can certainly expect the Whaley-Carlton/Sanogo lineup but is the Carlton-Sanogo lineup at the 4 and the 5 a thing? My guess is not. So do you then go with Polley-Carlton/Sanogo? Well, with Polley at 6-8 and Garcia at 6-11, I’m sure Marquette would be more than willing to throw the ball to him in the post where he as I said, 8-18 on post-ups.

Well John is only 6-9? Yes, but he is 245 pounds and another player who Marquette is more than happy to throw the ball into the post to. He has 77 post-up possessions and while he is turning it over on 22% of post possessions, Marquette is scoring on nearly half of his post-ups.

In conclusion, if Whaley gets in foul trouble, I’m really not sure where Hurley goes unless Marquette is also facing the same issue of foul trouble.

Last thing - this is kind of my nerd corner.

What does UConn do with DJ Carton ballscreens? Carton has been involved in 94 offensive possessions as the primary ball handler in pick and rolls. On 56 keeps, he is shooting 15-34 from the field and turning it over 23.4% of the time. On the 38 possessions he has given it up, Marquette is 16-32 from the field. The numbers tell you, you would rather have Carton keep it and then give it up.

But, Hurley’s hard hedging defense ideally forced the ball out of the ballhandlers hands - so the opposite of what the number say. So do you adjust your base ballscreen defense of hard hedges in order to force Carton to keep it in his hands rather than into the hands of the red-hot Cain, McEwen or Garcia?

Against USC and Tahj Eaddy, Hurley had RJ Cole go under on ballscreens and it worked out pretty well so maybe that gameplan is put back into place tonight. However, Carton is 6-11 on dribble pull-ups off ballscreens and going under gives space for those. It is a small sample size and maybe you just live with it but it’s something I am super interested to see play out.

As if you couldn’t tell, I freaking love this stuff.