Marquette Golden Eagles 6-5 (2-3)
Kenpom Stats:
31st in adjusted offensive efficiency
80th in effective field goal percentage
40th in 3PT percentage at 38%
228th in Turnover percentage at 20.9% (1 in 5 possessions result in a turnover!)
Marquette’s Offense versus UConn Defense:
Marquette excels at four main areas on the offensive side of the ball:
Spot Ups
Pick and Rolls
Post Ups
Transition
Marquette Spot-Ups
Spot Ups are considered anytime a player receives a pass while spotting up. It can be a catch and shoot, dribble pull-ups, drives to the hoop, or floaters. It is not considered a spot up if a player is coming off a screen or ballscreen. My guess would be a lot of Marquette's spot ups come from the pick and roll.
Overall, 21.6% of Marquette’s possessions come from the spot up and they are averaging 1.096 Points Per Possession, good for 21st in the country. They are shooting 42.5% on all spot ups and are scoring in some regard (three-pointer, two-pointer, free throw) on 43.6% of spot up possessions. They also only turn it over 5.3% of spot up possessions.
Guard Koby McEwen is the best in spot-possessions, shooting 17-34 from the field and scoring on 52.4% of possessions. Jamal Cain is used in the next most spot-up possessions, shooting 16-31 from the field and scoring on 53.1% of possessions. Here is a chart of Marquette’s most used spot-up players:
How does UConn Defend Spot-Ups:
UConn is elite when defending spot-up possessions, ranking 44th in the country in Points Per Possession allowed. UConn has been involved in 107 defensive spot-up possessions, allowing just 0.757 points per possession. They are holding teams to just 31.5% from the field and are allowing teams to score on 31.8% of spot-up possessions.
According to Synergy, RJ Cole and James Gaffney are both considered excellent defenders in spot-up possessions holding opposing offensive players to under 25% shooting. James Bouknight has been involved in the most spot-up defensive possessions (22) and is holding opponents to 7-18 shooting. Here is a chart of UConn’s most used spot-up defenders:
Marquette Pick and Rolls
21.4% of Marquette’s possessions end in the ball handler’s hands or the screen-setters hand and feature two main ball handlers, McEwen and DJ Carton.
McEwen has been involved in 96 pick and rolls while Carton has been involved in 94. The next highest used pick and roll ballhandler is Jamal Cain, with only 17 possessions.
Out of the 96 possessions by McEwen, he keeps it just over half the time, converting on 17-38 field goal attempts. He is shooting 40.9% from the field on dribble pull-ups and 45.5% when he takes it to the hoop. Overall, Marquette is scoring on 39.6% of McEwen pick and rolls and he is only turning it over on 10.4% of pick and roll possessions.
Meanwhile, Carton has a turnover rate of 23.4% in pick and roll possessions and an astounding turnover rate of 30.4% when he keeps it on pick and rolls. It may fit Carton better to pass of the pick and rolls as when he does, the Golden Eagles are 16-32 on field goal attempts. When Carton does keep it and doesn’t turn it over, he is 15-34 from the field. 6-11 on Off-the-dribble jumpers, 3-8 on runners, and 2-8 when taking it to the basket. Overall, Marquette is scoring on 39.4% of defensive possessions. If you like chart-form, here you go
Here is a chart of who McEwen, Carton, and Cain are likely to pass to off the pick and roll
While we are on the topic of pick and rolls, here is a breakdown of total ballscreens set by Marquette’s frontcourt players: John, Lewis, and Garcia
It should be noted here that when Marquette sets ballscreens, they tend not to roll to the hoop, rather popping to the three-point line or slipping the screen all together.
How Does UConn Defend the Pick and Roll:
Let’s turn to UConn’s Pick and Roll Defense, something that has been very good this season and continues to improve with every game and each possession. Overall, UConn has only been involved in 69 pick and roll possessions that end in the ball handler’s hands or the roll man’s hands.
Starting with the on-ball defender, Gaffney has been involved in the most pick and roll situations (18 possessions) and is only allowing 2-12 shooting which is considered Excellent by Synergy standards.
As a team, UConn is allowing just 12-37 shooting when the ball-handler keeps it on the pick and roll. When opponents have passed it to the screener against UConn, they are scoring on just 31.3% of pick and roll possessions while also turning it over 31.3% of the time.
Marquette Post-Ups
Next, let’s take a look at post ups. 12.7% of Marquette’s possessions come off post ups and they are averaging 0.845 PPP, considered “Good” by Synergy. Big man Theo John far and away leads the team with 77 total postups. Justin Lewis is second on the team with 40 post-up possessions and lastly, Dawson Garcia is third on the team with 24 possessions. When the ball goes into Garcia, it is not coming out as he has only passed it out 1 time.
John has kept the ball in the post 58 times, shooting 21-34 from the field and on his 19 passes out of the post, Marquette is 6-15 from the field. Overall, Marquette is scoring on 48.1% of all offensive possessions that go into the post to John. However, he does turn it over on 22.1% of post possessions.
How Does UConn Defend Post-Ups?
Not much of a sample size, but overall, UConn has been involved in 23 post-up possessions on defense this season, allowing 0.826 PPP which is about average. They are allowing teams to shoot 7-14 from the field and score on 43.5% of possessions.
Isaiah Whaley has been involved in the most post-up possessions (9) and is allowing some type of score on 55.6% of possessions. However, he is forcing turnovers 22.2% of the time.
What about Transition?
Yeah, this is an interesting one. Marquette is considered very good in transition, averaging 1.092 PPP in transition, converting on 38-77 field goals and scoring 41.9% of the time. Meanwhile, UConn is allowing 61.1% shooting from the field and an astounding 1.2 PPP.
These contrasting statistics would make it seem that it would be an easy decision for Marquette to play fast in order to take advantage of their transition success and UConn’s transition failures. However, according to Kenpom, Marquette is 227th in the country in adjusted tempo so 11 games in, it is not exactly in their DNA to push the ball consistently up the court off misses.
Now that we have all this information, what do we do with it?
Major Questions:
What are the matchups, specifically who guards McEwen?
Starting with the post, John is someone who Marquette will willingly throw the ball into so I would imagine Carlton or Sanogo earns this assignment. Whaley could handle John for a few possessions, but my guess is we would rather have him guard Garcia or Lewis. Garcia is 6-11 and will play some stretch five but is more willing to pop to the three point line on ballscreens rather than post up. By keeping Whaley out of the John matchup, it will allow him to be used in hard hedges (something he is very good at) and hopefully stay out of foul trouble.
To the backcourt! As noted, McEwen and Carton are used heavily in pick and roll situations but are used differently. Carton is at his best when he gives it up (when he is not turning it over). My guess is with Carton more prone to turn it over on keeps, Cole will earn the assignment in order to hound him for 94 feet. Clearly, he does not do well with pressure and Cole, one of UConn’s best on-ball defenders is about as good as it gets when it comes to pressuring opponents guards.
This leaves McEwen and Cain, Marquette’s best spot-up players and three-point threats. McEwen can play both on and off the ball whereas Cain relies on others playmaking ability to get him the ball in catch and shoot situations or straight line drives to the hoop. I could see Gafney definitely getting time on McEwen off the bench but am very curious to see who Hurley starts on McEwen and who defends him for a majority of the game.
There are two schools of thoughts here. The first is to go with Martin because he is bigger than McEwen while being just as athletic. It will allow him to continue to develop into a necessary piece for this UConn team while also conserving Bouknight’s energy for offense. Bouknight would then be tasked with 6-7 Cain who does most of his work on catch and shoots in spot-up situations. This means Bouk, who could be tasked with being the MIG at several points during the game, would have to be very in tune with defensive rotations and the scout, something that has been the only tiniest little flaw in his game thus far.
The other thought is you simply put Bouknight on McEwen and allow for the two elite scorers to battle it out. Bouknight has consistently been known for his offense this year, but has shown flashes of underrated great on-ball defense. If Bouknight gets tasked with McEwen and wins the matchup, NBA scouts will continue to salivate at the mouth for him. This would then task Martin to begin on Cain, meaning Martin could be involved in the MIG position while also keeping Cain at bay on closeouts. If you have read any of these articles or followed us on twitter, you know we love Martin’s MIG defense and the fact that he always keeps his feet moving.
If I were looking at this from a coach’s perspective, I would go with Martin on McEwen since based on stats, McEwen is just as effective off-the-ball meaning Martin’s ability to defend both on the ball and off-the-ball will come into play here.
Either way, the Bouknight-Martin as Batman and Martin Duo could shine through once again, this time on defense.
How does UConn’s Pick and Roll MIG defense adjust versus the pick and pop and look in general?
As we know with UConn’s pick and roll defense, they employ the hard hedge and MIG. I would have to take a look back at the Creighton and DePaul film but I can’t remember either team emploring screensetters to pop to the three-point line. This means our MIG defense may look a little bit different and will continue to require discipline and communication. Luckily, Marquette’s two main screen setters, Garcia and Lewis, aren’t the greatest threats from the perimeter, but you still don’t want to give too many open looks too often.
I would imagine UConn will make it a point to force the ball out of McEwen’s hands with the hard hedge as he is the most used player/biggest threat in this Marquette offense. I’m curious to see what UConn will do with Carton since he is more prone to turn it over on keeps. My guess we still hard hege him because that’s just what we do, but there is the potential of going under on ballscreens for him, something Cole did against USC’s Tahj Eaddy.
As discussed above, if a defender is guarding Cain but is in the MIG position, they will have to not only close out hard to prevent the three, but they’ll have to closeout under control in order to avoid blowbys. Or Hurley and UConn can go with the approach of whoever is NOT guarding Cain is put in the MIG position (communication).
However, this would put UConn in a tough position when Carton is coming off a ballscreen since whoever is guarding Cain and McEwen will be put in a difficult position being the MIG and defending either of Marquette’s best spot up players. Another reason why it may make most sense to simply go under on Carton ballscreens….but he is 6-11 on off-the-dribble jumpers which would be open when going under on ballscreens so….
Either way, these are the little intricacies of the game that we just love to cover here at BleedBlueBlog.
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